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My opinion in Forbes.Ru points out peculiarities of the reported
investment cost of "Power of Siberia". Specifically, the estimated
cost stayed intact when the pipeline length was cut by one third and
the installed compressor capacity was reduced by 7 percent.
|
Year |
Pipeline length, km |
Installed capacity, MW |
Estimated cost, Thous. Rub. |
|
|
"Power of Siberia" |
|
(at prices of 01-01-2011) |
|
2015 |
3246.8 |
1282 |
799,911,570.00 |
|
2016 |
2154.5 |
1186 |
799,911,570.00 |
|
2018 |
2157.9 |
1186 |
799,911,570.00 |
|
|
"Southern Corridor" |
|
(at prices of 01-01-2012) |
|
2015 |
2339.0 |
1516 |
714,673,039.80 |
Source:
Gazprom
In 2015, Gazprom informed its
shareholders and investors that 1 km of the new export pipeline in
East Siberia would cost ₽246 Million and 1 km of "Southern
Corridor" over ₽270 Million (net of the cost of the "Russkaya"
compressor station at the Black Sea). "Southern Corridor" is built
in the plains of Southern Russia, along the ROW of existing
pipelines and
close to railways and roadways, while a good part of "Power of
Siberia" runs in the
middle of nowhere.
Section of "Southern Corridor".
Map source:
Gazprom
It is several times more expensive to
deliver a ton of steel pipe by rail from a mill in European Russia
to East Siberia than to the ROW of "Southern Corridor". It is dozens
of times more expensive to deliver the pipe from an East Siberian
railway station to the ROW.
Obviously, "Southern Corridor" is
overpriced - 1 km of this pipeline is three times more expensive
than 1 km of German
OPAL (same diameter, higher capacity)
commissioned in 2011. Note that now Gazprom plans to
decommission
(actually, dig out) 506 km of "Southern Corridor".
The attitude to the reported
investment cost of "Power of Siberia" indicates that Gazprom may not
know and/or does not care about the actual expenses. After the
reduction of the pipeline length, the unit cost can be calculated as
₽371 Million per km, but this is just another virtual number. Only
the contractors of Gazprom know the real cost.
Mikhail
Korchemkin
East
European Gas Analysis
Malvern,
PA, USA
March 29, 2018
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